Thursday, April 15, 2010

I believe the results in Canada would Be the Same

April 15, 2010

The Battleground Poll and the Hiding Elites

By Bruce Walker

The April 2010 Battleground Poll results have just been released. The poll contains the usual list of topical questions, which ask respondents about which political party they support, what issues are most important to them, what they think of certain political personalities, etc. The answers to these questions matter in the short run, and political junkies pay close attention to these polling results.

There is, however, an old familiar story in the Battleground Poll. This question goes directly to the core beliefs of the respondent, not how politicians, parties, and pundits are spinning the politics of the day. Question D (3) in the Battleground Poll asks what ought to be the most important question about America -- what are the political values of Americans? This is a question almost never asked by polling organizations. 

Here is what Question D (3) asks of respondents: "When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be ... ?" Then the poll gives respondents six possible answers: very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, very liberal, and unsure/refused. Battleground is a bipartisan poll which prides itself on rigorous and open methodology. It has proven to be one of the most accurate of all polls in predicting the exact percentage of the vote candidates receive in general elections. Battleground lets us see the questions asked, unlike many other polls.

Since June 2002, the Battleground Poll has asked this same question in its demographics section, and in fifteen consecutive polls, the answer has always been the same. Americans overwhelmingly describe themselves as conservative. What does "overwhelming" mean in this context? The percentage of Americans who call themselves conservative in these polls has never been less than 58% (conservative strength was that at its lowest point through these years in December 2007, when "only" 58% of Americans described themselves as conservative.) There has been a remarkable consistency in the responses to this question. Over the course of these polls, 60.2% of Americans, on average, call themselves conservative. 

The results of the April 2010 Battleground Poll show that nothing has changed. Fifty-nine percent of Americans in the latest Battleground Poll call themselves conservative; two percent of Americans call themselves; thirty-four percent call themselves liberal; and five percent were either unsure or refused to answer. Remove the "Unsure/Refused," and sixty-two percent of Americans are conservative. Stories from the establishment media, like USA Today and the L.A. Times, conveniently miss the underlying story about the April 2010 Battleground Poll.

The story of conservative predominance is not new; it precedes the Battleground Poll. The Gallup Poll, on February 25, 1973, asked Americans about their ideology. Forty-one percent of Americans were conservative, and only twenty-three percent liberal, and conservatives were easily the largest ideological group. Last year, when Gallup polled ideological identification of every state in the nation, the results were published with the curious title "Conservative Label Prevails in South." Only a careful perusal of the state by state data reveals that conservatives outnumbered liberals in each state in America. Surely "Conservatives Outnumber Liberals in Every State" would have been a more interesting title -- if the mainstream media wanted this story to gain attention.

So why does the media hide this critically important story? It might help conservatives to grasp just how thoroughly a cadre of leftists has captured out institutions. In 2005, a study revealed that seventy-two percent of professors in American universities described themselves as liberal, while only thirteen percent described themselves as conservative. Fred Barnes has noted that journalists overwhelmingly defined themselves as liberal in eleven different surveys on the subject taken since 1962. The media and academia reject what Americans believe. The purpose of those institutions is not to inform or to educate, but to indoctrinate. Those who champion "diversity" most have less intellectual and philosophical diversity in their own hives than any other part of America. The newsroom and the classroom do not look anything like America, which is something the left does not want us to know.  

What percentage of America would call itself "liberal" if leftist opinion was not propped up by a near-monopoly in college faculties and in corporate newsrooms? Sixty percent of Americans call themselves conservative despite the fact that conservative opinion and thought are regularly mocked and demonized by news organizations and by Marxist faculties. How many more Americans would call themselves conservatives if it was chic to be conservative -- or at least if being conservative did not automatically also mean being a racist, a homophobe, uneducated, and despicable? That must be the scary part of the left: the sixty percent of Americans who bravely accept the title "conservative" hides a greater conservative majority, including those timid souls who are afraid to say what they believe. 

The new Battleground Poll reveals tantalizing questions and answers about how Americans view their servants in the press and education (really, their hiding elites.)  Question 36 reveals that 65% of Americans feel that journalism in America is headed in the wrong direction -- 47% of Americans feel this strongly. Question 38 informs us that 73% of Americans feel strongly that journalism is important to democracy. Past Battleground Poll responses have shown the overwhelming conservative majority in America, something ignored by the mainstream media. The April Battleground Poll suggests that Americans are to seriously question this mainstream (and liberal) media. Perhaps the conservative giant in America, so long intimidated and misled, is finally grasping the harm caused to our government with a media utterly subservient to a minority ideology. If this is the case, then news of our hiding elites surely the new biggest hidden story in politics.

Bruce Walker is the author of two books: Sinisterism: Secular Religion of the Lie, and his recently published book, The Swastika against the Cross: The Nazi War on Christianity.

Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/04/the_battleground_poll_and_the_1.html at April 15, 2010 - 07:08:05 AM CDT

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

What have the socialists (Liberals) done to us?

What have the socialists (Liberals) done to us?

Back in 1970 I lived in Montreal.  I was a commission sales specialist.  I had a company car and earned around 30,000 per year (not guaranteed).  My first son was delivered in a great hospital (Catherine Booth).  The entire cost including all doctor visits and 7 days private hospital room was $350 - no medicare, no insurance.  We didn't qualify for company insurance because my wife was pregnant when I was hired.  Medicare was established in Quebec later that year.

We bought our first house in Beaconsfield.  It was a custom built multi level split with 4 bedrooms, a nice yard beautiful trees etc.  It was close to 2 and 20 for commuting.  It cost 24,250.  My aggregate tax rate then was 14% ($4200) so the house cost less than one year's take home pay.

After our second child, I decided that my wife needed a car.  We bought a Datsun 510 station wagon for $2820 or about 10% of my take home pay.

THOSE WERE THE DAYS MY FRIEND.  What have the socialists (Liberals) done to us?  Today (Post Trudeau) a house costs 6 times take home pay; a car costs 2/3.

Canada’s Dilemma

It seems to me that in the absence of fraud, coercion and theft, the accumulation of wealth is accomplished by consensual trading of goods or services or the proxy of money between willing partners.  In all such pure transactions both parties receive net benefit or the trade would not take place.  It is this mutually beneficial trading that creates growth in wealth of a society or a nation.  The growth is measured by the increase in overall satisfaction of both trading partners.

On the other hand, a society that permits fraud, coercion or theft will suffer a decline in national worth.  That is because the sum of satisfaction will be neutral or net negative.  Taxes that are not perceived as a good trade are THEFT.  Forcing companies or governments to negotiate with labour cartels is COERCION.  Promises of future benefits (medicare, CPP etc) that will not provide the anticipated services constitute FRAUD.

It is my opinion that Canada in its current form fails on the basis of all three tests.  

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Canadian Housing Boom-Boom Around The Corner (Karl Denninger)

 

The Canucks are nuts:

Are you're going to tell me that:

  • The average Canadian household income is $121,000?
  • The average income in Vancouver is $329,000?
  • The average income in Toronto is $187,000?
  • The average income in Montreal is $118,000?

In a word, bullshit.

The latest median household income I can find for Canada is closer to $53,000 - or about half of what it should be.  That is, homes in Canada - on the whole - are selling for double reasonable "fair values."

I'm willing to bet that in Vancouver they're overvalued by a factor of five - or more.

I can't tell you when it will blow up, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that it will.

If you have a nice big fat profit in your house up there in Canuckistan, you better sell now while you still have it.

Ignore this warning at your own peril.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Parting Company (by Walter E. Williams)


Town Hall ^ | Walter E. Williams

Posted on Wednesday, April 07, 2010 12:09:26 PM by GregoTX

Here's the question asked in my September 2000 column titled "It's Time To Part Company": "If one group of people prefers government control and management of people's lives and another prefers liberty and a desire to be left alone, should they be required to fight, antagonize one another, risk bloodshed and loss of life in order to impose their preferences or should they be able to peaceably part company and go their separate ways?"

The problem that our nation faces is very much like a marriage where one partner has broken, and has no intention of keeping, the marital vows. Of course, the marriage can remain intact and one party tries to impose his will on the other and engage in the deviousness of one-upsmanship. Rather than submission by one party or domestic violence, a more peaceable alternative is separation. I believe we are nearing a point where there are enough irreconcilable differences between those Americans who want to control other Americans and those Americans who want to be left alone that separation is the only peaceable alternative. Just as in a marriage, where vows are broken, our human rights protections guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution have been grossly violated by a government instituted to protect them. The Democrat-controlled Washington is simply an escalation of a process that has been in full stride for at least two decades. There is no evidence that Americans who are responsible for and support constitutional abrogation have any intention of mending their ways.

You say, "Williams, what do you mean by constitutional abrogation?" Let's look at just some of the magnitude of the violations. Article I, Section 8 of our Constitution lists the activities for which Congress is authorized to tax and spend. Nowhere on that list is authority for Congress to tax and spend for: prescription drugs, Social Security, public education, farm subsidies, bank and business bailouts, food stamps and other activities that represent roughly two-thirds of the federal budget. Neither is there authority for congressional mandates to the states and people about how they may use their land, the speed at which they can drive, whether a library has wheelchair ramps and the gallons of water used per toilet flush. The list of congressional violations of both the letter and spirit of the Constitution is virtually without end. Our derelict Supreme Court has given Congress sanction to do anything upon which they can muster a majority vote.

James Madison, the acknowledged father of the Constitution, explained in Federalist Paper No. 45: "The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite. The former will be exercised principally on external objects, as war, peace, negotiation, and foreign commerce. ... The powers reserved to the several States will extend to all the objects which in the ordinary course of affairs, concern the lives and liberties, and properties of the people, and the internal order, improvement and prosperity of the State."

Americans who wish to live free have several options. We can submit to those who have constitutional contempt and want to run our lives. We can resist, fight and risk bloodshed and death in an attempt to force America's tyrants to respect our liberties and human rights. We can seek a peaceful resolution of our irreconcilable differences by separating. Some independence movements, such as our 1776 war with England and our 1861 War Between the States, have been violent, but they need not be. In 1905, Norway seceded from Sweden; Panama seceded from Columbia (1903), and West Virginia from Virginia (1863). Nonetheless, violent secession can lead to great friendships. England is probably our greatest ally.

The bottom-line question for all of us is: Should we part company or continue trying to forcibly impose our wills on one another? My preference is a restoration of the constitutional values of limited government that made us a great nation.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Was the Arctic Ice Cap 'Adjusted'? (American Thinker)


April 06, 2010

 

By Randall Hoven
There is an entity called the National Snow and Ice Data Center.  If you go to its web site, you can find data and plots of sea ice extent.  In particular, you can find the size of the Arctic ice cap, or what the NSIDC calls Northern Hemisphere sea ice.  The graph shown on April 2, 2010 is reproduced below.



The data points in this chart reflect the extent of northern hemisphere sea ice in March of each year.  The chart indicates that the arctic ice cap is melting - at a rate of 2.6% per decade (about 0.41 million square kilometers).  At that rate, the polar ice cap would be gone in 385 years.

Such data have a lot of folks dismissing the CRUgate shenanigans as not all that relevant.  Who cares about temperature data when you have the Arctic ice cap staring you in the face?  For example, Katie Couric said, "A picture is worth a thousand emails and pictures of the polar ice caps show a 20% decrease since 1979."

First off, the above graph shows only an 8% decrease over the last 31 years, not a 20% decrease.  So Katie would seem to have exaggerated.

But things get really interesting if you look at NSIDC's raw data, which come from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  You will notice that the above chart is of sea ice "extent."  The data actually come in two versions: "extent" and "area," which are not quite the same.  Here is how the NSIDC explains it.

"Important Note: The ‘extent' column includes the area near the pole not 
imaged by the sensor. It is assumed to be entirely ice covered with at least
15% concentration. However, the ‘area' column excludes the area not imaged
by the sensor. This area is 1.19 million square kilometers for SMMR (from
the beginning of the series through June 1987) and 0.31 million square
kilometers for SSM/I (from July 1987 to present). Therefore, there is a
discontinuity in the ‘area' data values in this file at the June/July 1987 boundary."






My reading of those "important" words is that the only thing really measured by satellites was "area."  Yet the plot showed "extent," something more than was measured.  And the difference is something they "assumed."  (If you have a better explanation of that "Important Note," please enlighten me.)





What were the differences?  From the above words from NSIDC, you would think the differences would be constant offsets (1.19 million sq km from 1979 through June of 1987, and 0.31 million since).  But the actual differences in the data file were not constant at all; they varied between 1.93 and 3.42 million sq km.





Why is the area of an assumed region included in the NSIDC's graph?  More importantly, why does that assumed, non-measured, area vary from year to year and month to month in no apparent pattern?





The NSIDC does not provide a plot of the one thing that is measured: area.  But I do, below, all based on the raw data provided at NSIDC's web site.











Using the raw data from NSIDC, I was able to reproduce its results for "extent."  My calculations using the raw data showed a decline of 2.6% per decade, just as NSIDC said.  So far, so good.  (Or bad, depending on your point of view.)





However, the "area" is a different story.  Just by eyeball, no trend is apparent.  In fact, calculations say it is growing 0.3% per decade!





That is simply astounding.  The Arctic sea ice that is actually measured by imaging sensors is growing, not shrinking at all.  Shout it from the rooftops: we are saved!





Actually, the rate of growth is statistically insignificant, meaning a statistician would say it is neither growing nor shrinking; it just bobs up and down randomly.  More good news: no coming ice age either.





All the above data was only for the month of March.  What about other months?  I tabulate below the growth rates (% per decade) for each of the months of the year.





Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Growth 1978-2010, by Month





As a Percentage of the 1979-2000 Average














































































































Month




Growth of "Extent"




Growth of "Area"




January




-3.2%/decade




-0.3%/decade




February




-2.8




+0.1




March




-2.6




+0.3




April




-2.8




-0.1




May




-2.5




-0.2




June




-3.3




-2.1




July




-6.1




-4.5




August




-8.7




-4.2




September




-11.2




-8.2




October




-5.9




-5.7




November




-4.5




-1.3




December




-3.3




-0.8








You see that "extent" always shows more shrinkage than "area."  In the months of maximum sea ice, February and March, the area trend is upward.  And for winter months generally, December through May, any trend in area is statistically insignificant.  For summer months, July through October, the trend is downward and statistically significant.





Katie Couric should have used the month of September as her example.  In three decades, the Arctic sea ice "extent" shrank by 34%.  She could make such claims while stating, truthfully, that the data come from NSIDC/NOAA and the trend is statistically significant.  It's science.





If she had wanted to stretch the truth even further, she could have compared September of 1980 (extent of 7.85 million sq km) to September of 2007 (extent of 4.3 million sq km).  That's a decline of 45%, almost half!  (Katie needs a better cherry picker.)





Let's look more closely at those summer months.  Below is the graph for September, the month showing the most shrinkage.











Again, the red line represents "area," the only thing actually measured.  A downward trend is evident to the eyeball.  But look closely and that downward trend is fairly recent, say since 2000.  Indeed, the calculated trend was slightly upward through 2001.  That is, the entire decline is explained by measurements since 2002, a time span of just eight years.





We are told by climate scientists themselves to ignore short-term anomalies.  If we do, then even the more alarming ice cap shrinkage numbers, which were only for the summer months in the first place, disappear as well; they are short-term blips.  In fact, September's sea ice area has gone up in the most recent two years of data.





Moreover, the verb "measured" is overly simplistic.  The numbers result from computer algorithms working with satellite images.  NSDIC has a section of its documentation called "Error Sources."






"There are a number of algorithms in use that convert channel brightness temperatures to sea ice concentration. All perform slightly differently under varying weather and ice conditions. Relatively few papers were published that compare algorithms or compare results with validation data...  In summer, passive microwave overestimates open water by a larger amount, as the instrument cannot distinguish open water between ice floes with melt ponds on the floes, and other factors such as the ice-snow interface come into play (Comiso and Kwok 1996) and (Fetterer and Untersteiner 1998). This makes it difficult to interpret trends and anomalies for the summer months."






Well how about that?  The very months where we found the most apparent shrinkage were the months that are the most "difficult to interpret trends and anomalies" and where the error would tend to underestimate ice.





This little Northern Hemisphere sea ice example captures so much of the climate change tempest in microcosm.






  • When presenting data, the "scientists" include an unexplained adjustment to the measured data.  In this case, the adjustments explain the entire evidence for Arctic ice cap shrinkage in winter months.


  • Measurement processes depend on computer algorithms with scant validation -- "few papers were published that compare algorithms or compare results with validation data."


  • Using only measured data, and all the data, there are no alarming trends.  Winter months show no ice cap shrinkage at all.  While there is shrinkage in summer months, that shrinkage is only evident in the last eight years, a time span too short to make a long-term conclusion, and in the months of least confidence in measurement techniques.


  • The data allow cherry-picking.  A Katie Couric, if she were cleverer, could say the Arctic ice cap shrank almost in half in the last three decades.  On the other hand, I could say it grew 6% in that time period.  We would both be telling the truth, by comparing cherry-picked months and years.






And all this was only for the north polar ice cap.  The south one was more obviously growing over the last three decades.  The Katie Courics of the world completely ignore that one.





And remember, even if we could clearly show that the planet is getting warmer, we would still need to show that such warming is bad, that it is caused by man and that the best cure is drastic cuts in fossil fuel usage.  We are not even through step one of such an analysis.





By the way, I have not received a penny from Big Oil.  But Big Oil can contact me at randall.hoven@gmail.com.





Randall Hoven can be contacted at randall.hoven@gmail.com or via his web site, randallhoven.com.




Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/04/was_the_arctic_ice_cap_adjuste_1.html at April 06, 2010 - 07:19:06 AM CDT

Monday, April 5, 2010

A Sobering View Of Macro Economic Reality (Karl Denninger)

The Market Ticker

Sunday, April 4. 2010

Posted by Karl Denninger in Macro Economics at 14:01

A Sobering View Of Macro Economic Reality

In 2001, we had a recession, right?

We recovered, right?

Are you sure?

Are you curious as to why manufacturing has continued to shift to China, why the only "good jobs" in this country seemed to be centered on ripping someone off in some way (e.g. subprime or "liar loan" mortgage brokers, stock brokers, guys selling bogus CDS against money they didn't have, etc) and why employment never really recovered - with the employment rate of the population failing to move materially higher after the 2000 recession, you might want to read the rest of this missive.

And by the way, the employment trend of the previous month?  Revisions made that worse - here's the previous month's graph:

If you remember last month I said that changes in this data were "encouraging."  This month however the revisions caused some negative impact on the previous month's data; this is what that same chart looks like now:

Oops.  That's still below zero, isn't it?  So despite all the cheerleading in the media about the positive report in point of fact we are, on balance, below where we were last month as that big positive spike got revised away!

Now let's not be too negative - the situation has improved - from the bottom.  For example, the "not in labor force" chart now looks like this:

But last month it looked like this:

You wouldn't know this from the orgasmic response on CNBS Friday.  But the data is what it is, and despite actual improvement this last month the improvement in the situation last month not only revised away all the improvement from this month, it revised away even more!

Leave it to government to report a number that's "good", then is revised away the next month beyond the improvement in the next month in the series, meaning that in point of fact you've moved backward, not forward.

But that's not the reason for this missive.  Oh no.  This Ticker is dedicated to exposing what we did in the 2000-2009 decade at a macro economic level, and why those who are calling "end of recession" need to go drink a bottle of arsenic-laced gin before they wind up really hurting people making real decisions in the economy - that is, you, I, and every business person in America.

If you remember in 2001 we had a recession.  I put forward the following (rather confusing) base graph of federal debt expressed as month-over-month change, going way back to the 1990s.  Click for a big copy, and have a big monitor:

The reason I'm going to confuse you with the above is that I am shortly to bring light to this matter.  That is, I'm going to reduce this raw squiggle to something understandable - that is, the annual rate of change of federal debt (all-in, including on-sheet transfer payments) since the early 1990s.

Notice something: Federal debt additions through the 1990s actually shrunk - that is, the "rate of change" was negative.  But look what happened when we went into the recession in 2001 - The Federal Government began spending a lot more money (on balance sheet) and despite the putative recovery beginning in 2002 they never stopped doing so.  That is, the "Keynesian" stimulus that is allegedly necessary to lift the economy from recession was never retracted from the economy. And, as you can see, in the last two years this "stimulus" has gone nearly-vertical.

How much of the economy did this amount to?  That's easy:

Note that post-recession in 2001 federal spending exceeded the Euro-zone target of 3% continually, hovering between 4-6%.  This is in stark contrast to the years prior to 2001, when it was in fact falling - that is, private industry was supporting the economy.

Also note what has happened during the last two years - Federal Deficit spending was 9.65% and 12.11% of GDP, respectively.

Here's the problem - deficit spending like this produces false final demand, in that it implies the ability to do so forever.  We of course know this not to be true - witness Iceland and Greece, neither of which were able to continue the charade ad-infinitumNor will we be able to; we have survived thus far without "feeling the consequences" because others are willing to loan us ever-increasing amounts of capital at ever-lower rates of interest. 

So what does this look like overlaid?  That's pretty simple too:

Your green line is nominal (as reported) GDP.  Deficits are in blue, and actual private economic GDP - that is, the total output generated by private business activity, is in red.

1990s economic growth was real.  The 2000s economic growth was not - it never exceeded 2% in real terms.  And now?  We're in full-on economic Depression territory - whether you hear it admitted on ToutTV or not.

If you're wondering why your neighbor (and perhaps yourself) managed to go bankrupt playing the Home Equity Withdrawal game, why that new Escalade and boat in your driveway have turned into a noose around your neck, and why despite claims of "recovery!" on ToutTV and in the print media you can't seem to find a good-paying job, now you (should) understand. 

Simply put: You were lied to for ten years and you're still being lied to by all of these clowns, and listening to them now, as it did in 2003, will only lead you to personal financial ruin.

Remember when I said "we will have a Depression" - that given what the government did in 2001-03 timeframe it was inevitable?

We're in one now.

So why has the market rallied so strongly?  For the same reason it did in 2003 - the Federal Government has stepped in to replace final demand by consumers and private enterprise.  That "stabilization" is neither permanent or healthy - indeed, it always causes malinvestment, where capital is put not into productive enterprise but rather tries to "chase" some sort of speculative return because that is the only game left in town.

In the 1990s there was plenty of speculative froth and lies, but at least people were trying to speculate on something that was real - The Internet and the rise of the personal computer in American Business as more than a tool for word processing in lawyers' offices.

But in the 2000s Government interference in what should have been a 10% drop in GDP prevented it - and resulted in massive malinvestment in the speculative froth in housing.  Fact is that the actual economic value of a home does not rise or fall - it is a place to sleep, hang your hat, take a shower and cook dinner.  The "multiplier" beyond that - that is, all alleged "value" beyond shelter, is pure malinvestment.  Government and The Fed encouraged and stoked it with a "free money machine" - not from The Federal Reserve but from the fiscal side of the table - that is, from Treasury and Congress.

Now we're doing it again, writ large.

Consider this - we're spending nearly 12% of GDP in borrowed money that we don't have.  Last month we borrowed and spent $333 billion - that is 28% of GDP!

Got that yet?  Government borrowing was nearly one third of the economy last month!

Now I'm quite sure that next month will show marked improvement - for one month anyway.  It always does, being April (tax day) and all.  But marked improvement for one month doesn't change what's going on here, nor the actual GDP of the economy - not what the BEA reports, but what private supply and demand produces.

If you believe that we can continue to hold GDP at a positive "reported rate" while spending 12% of it via deficits, or even half of that, you're welcome to believe that.  But history says that the crash that comes as a consequence when the imbalances build to the point that something breaks takes the market and economy lower that it would have gone had the intervention not been applied.

What we're doing now is unprecedented, other than during a global war (e.g. WWII) when it was literally "buttholes and elbows" together with the entire nation laboring for one purpose - to avoid obliteration.

To apply such extraordinary "stimulus" via borrowing other people's capital simply to avoid having those who made malinvestments being forced to declare bankruptcy, thereby resetting valuations of all items in the economy to sustainable levels, is both outrageous and doomed to fail.

We can argue time frames, but what can't be argued is the outcome.  We must stop this insanity, as we are building up even greater distortions than we had in 2006 and 2007 - indeed, we have managed to take five years of insanity (2003-2007) and compress it into two!

Does this mean we're due for it all to blow up now?  Not necessarily, although it might.  But it does mean that the damage when it does come apart will be at least as bad as it was in 2008 - and this assumes we stop today.

We will not, of course, which is why one needs to be prepared for what is inevitably to follow when the government's ability to continue this charade is interrupted, whether by forces within or without.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

America's Quiet Anger (from the American Spectator)

 

By James P. Gannon on 3.30.10 @ 6:07AM

There is a quiet anger boiling in America.

It is the anger of millions of hard-working citizens who pay their bills, send in their income taxes, maintain their homes and repay their mortgage loans -- and see their government reward those who do not.

It is the anger of small town and Middle American folks who have never been to Manhattan, who put their savings in a community bank and borrow from a local credit union, who watch Washington lawmakers and presidents of both parties hand billions in taxpayer bailouts to the reckless Wall Street titans who brought down the economy in 2008.

It is the fury of the voiceless, the powerless, the ordinary nobodies of Flyover Country who are ridiculed, preached to, satirized and insulted by the Celebrity Loudmouths of the two Left Coasts, the Jon Stewarts and Keith Olbermanns, the Paul Krugmans and their ilk.

It is the salted wound of the millions who see that ruling Democrats in Congress are not listening to them but are willfully ignoring public opinion and the verdict of recent elections in passing a huge new health care entitlement when the existing entitlements of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are already going broke.

It is the frustrating helplessness of citizens who revere the Founding Fathers and the genius of the Constitution that they wrote, who actually believe the words of the Constitution mean what they say, not more and not less. They who watch politicians and the courts stretch and bend that Constitution -- finding "rights" not enumerated, powers never granted, meanings unimagined -- believe that their country is being redefined without their consent.

Most of the angry are not out marching in the streets, waving signs or shouting into bullhorns. And they are not smashing windows or phoning death threats to politicians. They are simply waking up angry in the morning, and going to bed angry at night. And their resentment is multiplied by the media's efforts to portray them all as dangerous, crazy people, and by the effort of certain Democrats to tar them with brush of violent intent.

They are embittered, too, by the rhetoric of a triumphant president who turns on its head Winston Churchill's heroic attitude promising defiance in defeat but magnanimity in victory. For a president of a deeply divided country, defiance in victory is not an endearing posture. It has all the persuasive charm of a Chad Ochocinco victory dance in the end zone of the opponent's stadium.

These quietly angry people gather in their churches while their religions are called divisive and their beliefs are labeled as bigotry, and they pray for a better day. They talk among themselves in their Main Street cafes, at the Rotary club or at their kids' softball games, seeking others who understand their frustration and will not respond with arrogant dismissal.

They are tired of being told they are too stupid to understand the country's complex problems, too rooted in the past to find solutions, too selfish to share what they have worked for with everyone else who wants it.

They are not reaching for guns or for pitchforks. They are holding their anger within, waiting for their time, watching those in power over-reach and over-indulge.

Their wound is deep, and it will not be salved by more presidential speeches, Congressional hand-outs, or promises of wonderful things to come. They no longer believe any of that. Their quiet rage abides, waiting till it can be expressed in that silent place behind the curtain where the ballot lists the names that they have now committed to an angry memory.

Letter to the Editor

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James P. Gannon is a retired former Wall Street Journal reporter and newspaper editor. He lives in Virginia.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

A Point of No Return?

By Thomas Sowell

With the passage of the legislation allowing the federal government to take control of the medical care system of the United States, a major turning point has been reached in the dismantling of the values and institutions of America.

Even the massive transfer of crucial decisions from millions of doctors and patients to Washington bureaucrats and advisory panels-- as momentous as that is-- does not measure the full impact of this largely unread and certainly unscrutinized legislation.

If the current legislation does not entail the transmission of all our individual medical records to Washington, it will take only an administrative regulation or, at most, an Executive Order of the President, to do that.

With politicians now having not only access to our most confidential records, and having the power of granting or withholding medical care needed to sustain ourselves or our loved ones, how many people will be bold enough to criticize our public servants, who will in fact have become our public masters?

Despite whatever "firewalls" or "lockboxes" there may be to shield our medical records from prying political eyes, nothing is as inevitable as leaks in Washington. Does anyone still remember the hundreds of confidential FBI files that were "accidentally" delivered to the White House during Bill Clinton's administration?

Even before that, J. Edgar Hoover's extensive confidential FBI files on numerous Washington power holders made him someone who could not be fired by any President of the United States, much less by any Attorney General, who was nominally his boss.

The corrupt manner in which this massive legislation was rammed through Congress, without any of the committee hearings or extended debates that most landmark legislation has had, has provided a roadmap for pushing through more such sweeping legislation in utter defiance of what the public wants.

Too many critics of the Obama administration have assumed that its arrogant disregard of the voting public will spell political suicide for Congressional Democrats and for the President himself. But that is far from certain.

True, President Obama's approval numbers in the polls have fallen below 50 percent, and that of Congress is down around 10 percent. But nobody votes for Congress as a whole, and the President will not be on the ballot until 2012.

They say that, in politics, overnight is a lifetime. Just last month, it was said that the election of Scott Brown to the Senate from Massachusetts doomed the health care bill. Now some of the same people are saying that passing the health care bill will doom the administration and the Democrats' control of Congress. As an old song said, "It ain't necessarily so."

The voters will have had no experience with the actual, concrete effect of the government takeover of medical care at the time of either the 2010 Congressional elections or the 2012 Presidential elections. All they will have will be conflicting rhetoric-- and you can depend on the mainstream media to go along with the rhetoric of those who passed this medical care bill.

The ruthless and corrupt way this bill was forced through Congress on a party-line vote, and in defiance of public opinion, provides a road map for how other "historic" changes can be imposed by Obama, Pelosi and Reid.

What will it matter if Obama's current approval rating is below 50 percent among the current voting public, if he can ram through new legislation to create millions of new voters by granting citizenship to illegal immigrants? That can be enough to make him a two-term President, who can appoint enough Supreme Court justices to rubber-stamp further extensions of his power.

When all these newly minted citizens are rounded up on election night by ethnic organization activists and labor union supporters of the administration, that may be enough to salvage the Democrats' control of Congress as well.

The last opportunity that current American citizens may have to determine who will control Congress may well be the election in November of this year. Off-year elections don't usually bring out as many voters as Presidential election years. But the 2010 election may be the last chance to halt the dismantling of America. It can be the point of no return.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Healthy Canadian Socialists

Monday, March 22, 2010

 

British and Canadian health care are socialized disasters. Rationed care, deficit spending, primitive equipment and technology, and a lack of consumer choice are just a few atrocities of government-run health care. Canada operates as a single payer health care system—government is the payer, the regulator, the ultimate decider. Rationed treatment and interminable waiting lists kill tens of thousands of people every year. And it only gets worse. 815,000 Canadians are currently waiting for medical care; if the United States had the same health care system almost 8 million Americans would currently be waiting for care.

The Fraser Institute conducts an annual study called Waiting Your Turn: Hospital Waiting Lists in Canada, one of the most comprehensive studies on Canadian waiting lists. Across 12 specialties and 10 provinces, wait times for surgical and therapeutic treatments average 18 weeks; the wait following a general practitioner’s referral exceeds 17 weeks. Two of the worst procedures are neurosurgery (7 months) and orthopedic surgery (10 months). Canadian oncologists recommend cancer patients receive radiation treatment within 3.4 weeks of diagnosis, yet over half wait more than 6 weeks. Waiting lists in Canada are so extravagant that doctors send a third of their patients abroad, most of which receive treatment in the United States.

Patients in Ontario have it rough. The Institute for Clinical Evaluative Studies found that 40 percent of severely disabled patients wait over 13 months for surgery. Delayed treatment leads to prolonged pain and diminished quality of life. Think about having pain in your knee, so severe that you can barely walk, and having to wait a year for a knee replacement. You may be out of work because your job requires physical ability; you may lose relationships because you are confined to your home; and you may become untreatable because your condition has worsened. All of this because the government forces you to wait 12 months for treatment.

Disclaimer: if you live in British Columbia it is recommended that you do not become ill. With a population of 640,000, how many MRI scanners do you suppose Vancouver Island has? On the entire island…one! Even worse, the facility that performs the scans works on bankers’ hours, allowed to perform no more than 3,000 scans a year. Patients wait over a year for a simple diagnostic test. With good reason, BC physicians are outraged. A woman suspected of having an acoustic neuroma, a slow-growing brain tumor, was put on a waiting list after her case was deemed “elective”. For months she waited, wondering if a tumor was growing inside her brain. Her head was a ticking time bomb.

David Gratzer, a Canadian physician and author of the book Code Blue, describes the crisis in BC: “Patients suspected of having multiple sclerosis were also forced to wait. Imagine the sword of MS hanging over your head for a year. In an ironic twist, provincial regulations require that MS patients, in order to receive certain drug therapies, must have the disease confirmed first by an MRI scan.” In his book, Gratzer addresses how Canada’s socialized health care system has affected some of his close friends:

My own views on waiting lists have been darkly coloured by the experiences of a few family friends: a young Winnipeg woman with severe abdominal pain was expected to wait six months for the pain-alleviating gall bladder surgery; a community college teacher from southern Ontario suffered heart trouble and was forced to take a year off work while he waited for bypass surgery; an older woman with severe sleeping problems was put on a two-year waiting list to see a respiratory specialist.

In socialized health care systems, as the need to ration care rises, so does spending. Between 1993 and 2003, despite a 21 percent increase in spending, waiting lists in Canada increased by 70 percent. Free markets adjust to increasing costs through resilience and natural reformation, while socialized markets flood the system with pools of new spending. Bureaucracy thwarts efforts to increase efficiency and productivity, as excess funding is dumped into a bottomless pit. And as Canadian health care proceeds further from pre-socialization, government waste and inefficiency only intensifies.

Patients in Vancouver need MRI scans, they need kidney dialysis, and they need vascular surgery. But wasteful spending and government bureaucracy stand in the way of patients and their health. The province is in a financial crisis. A leaked document from the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority announced they will have to cut 6,250 surgeries and close 25 percent of its operating rooms, due to a plummeting $90 million deficit. Furthermore, a government proposal provoked a plan to downsize staff, increase fees, and limit services and treatment options.

Congressman Mike Rogers’ (R – Michigan), in his opening statement on health care reform, described the inevitable demise of a government-run system:
According to the [National Cancer Intelligence Centre] for the United Kingdom and the Canadian Cancer Registry, here's the trade-off that they picked by having government run health care: If you get prostate cancer you have a less chance of survivability than you do in the United States. And that's the same for skin cancer, breast cancer, bladder cancer, cervical cancer, kidney cancer, ovarian cancer, leukemia and the list goes on and on and on.

The Toronto Star reported a story of a man in Ontario who had a hole in his head the size of a baseball. With severe discomfort, emotionally and physically, he was forced to wait a year for surgery. A movie short, A Short Course in Brain Surgery, recounts the unfortunate event of a Canadian man who, suspected of having a brain tumor, was put on a 4-month waiting list for an MRI scan. Naturally, panicked that the tumor was growing, he crossed the southern border into the United States. Twenty four hours later he got the MRI. On arrival back into Canada, his specialist put him on another 4-month waiting list for neurosurgery. Again he headed south, and had the tumor removed the following day.

Another victim of the Canadian health care system was Janice Fraser, who needed surgery for a urinary disease. To control costs, the hospital specializing in her particular surgery performs only one surgery a month. Janice was behind 31 other people, which meant she would have to wait three years. Because her surgery was delayed so long her bladder developed severe infections and had to be removed immediately. As a result, she was forced to wear a urine bag for the rest of her life. Unlike the rare, isolated events in the United States—that the liberal media love to exploit—these horror stories are prevalent in the Canadian health care system. They happen all the time. Rationing is cruel and unfair, and as the “protector of the people”, government is the culprit.