Monday, May 29, 2017

Demolishing the link between CO2 and climate ( )

Archives, Dissenters, Global Warming Hoax, Sun Drives Climate, World News & Records

May 26, 2017 Robert 8 Comments

A meteorologist and an analytical chemist teamed up explore the claims that CO2 levels drive climate. (They also mention the role of underwater volcanoes, a drum that I have been beating for more than 20 years.)

In their newly published paper, ‘Role of atmospheric carbon dioxide in climate change‘, meteorologist Dr Martin Hertzberg and analytical chemist Hans Schreuder cite a plethora of data concerning what is known – and currently accepted – about the role of carbon dioxide in climate change (global warming).

The data examined includes:

(a) Vostok (Antarctica) ice-core measurements;

(b) rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere;

(c) temperature changes that precede CO2 changes;

(d) global temperature trends;

(e) satellite data;

(f) effect of solar activity.

The two highly qualified scientists found that:

“Nothing in the data supports the supposition that atmospheric CO2 is a driver of weather or climate, or that human emissions control atmospheric CO2.”

Any changes in CO2 levels are “overwhelmingly natural.”

Looking at the relationship between CO2 and climate over the past 400,000 years, the data indicate that human-caused CO2 emissions had no influence on the Earth’s temperature,

Even though CO2 levels doubled during warming periods in the past 400,000 years, any change in climate  could not have come from human emissions, which were essentially nil.

“Empirical evidence does not support the claim that anthropogenic CO2 emissions cause global warming and/or climate change.

“The preponderance of evidence suggests that human emission is not a significant factor in the increase (of CO2 levels).”

“Fossil fuels are not a significant source of atmospheric CO2,” the authors insist. Instead, forces and motions in the oceans and atmosphere are driven mainly by the following:

•   The motions of the Earth relative to the Sun

•   Variations in solar activity

•   The distribution of land and water on the Earth’s surface,

•   Motions within the Earth’s oceans that determine moisture content and ocean surface temperatures (El Nino and La Nina).

•   Volcanic eruptions

•   Underwater volcanic eruptions, including ‘black smokers’ that spew super-heated water continuously. Underwater volcanoes are expected to number in the hundreds of thousands.

The two long-time scientists also found that changes in temperature almost always preceded changes in CO2 levels, meaning that global warming alarmists have it backward. Carbon dioxide levels do not drive the climate. Instead, CO2 levels respond to climate.

Even during the last 59 years, the authors found a negative correlation between CO2 levels and climate.

See entire paper:

Martin Hertzberg was first trained as a meteorologist at the US Naval Postgraduate School and served as a forecasting and research aerologist at the Fleet Weather Central in Washington DC. He subsequently obtained a PhD in Physical Chemistry at Stanford and later served as a Fulbright Professor.

Dr Hertzberg established and supervised the explosion testing laboratory at the U. S. Bureau of Mines facility in Pittsburgh (now NIOSH). Test equipment developed in that laboratory has been widely replicated and incorporated into ASTM standards. Published test results from that laboratory are used for the hazard evaluation of industrial dusts and gases. He is an internationally recognized expert on combustion, flames, explosions and fire research with over 100 publications in those areas. While with the Federal Government he served as a consultant for several Government Agencies (MSHA, DOE, NAS) and professional groups (such as EPRI). He is the author of two US patents: (1) sub-micron particulate detectors, and (2) multi-channel infra-red pyrometers.

Hertzberg is also a long time climate writer and is a well-published skeptic of anthropogenic global warming/climate change.

Hans Schreuder trained as an analytical chemist in The Hague and spent 15 years working in that field, testing pharmaceutical products as well as researching the recycling of plastics and rubber. For another 15 years, he gained extensive experience as an international technical contractor, including writing quality control manuals whilst working in South Africa. He was accepted as a member of MENSA after passing the relevant tests.

Schreuder has long been a staunch and highly regarded critic of the greenhouse gas theory and outspoken commentator, using his two websites as a publishing hub for fellow scientists critical of the theory. Schreuder has written many articles on the subject and in May 2009 submitted a 109-page written report, supplemented with a 45-min oral submission, to the Northern Ireland Climate Change Committee.

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

A Climate of Science Deception

April 27, 2017 9:05AM

By Patrick J. Michaels and Ryan Maue

Former Energy Department Undersecretary Steven Koonin caused quite a stir yesterday in an interview with Mary Kissel of The Wall Street Journal when he stated Federal scientists purposefully misled the public about climate change. He recounted that the 2014 National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in the United States emphasized a dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane power beginning in 1980. However, this conveniently chosen segment of the historical record does not tell the entire story—the narrative that hurricanes are right now getting more frequent and intense due to climate change just does not stand up to scrutiny.

The offending figure is on Page 42 of the document (reproduced here). It is in Chapter 2 of the report, which is called “Our Changing Climate.”

These are graphs of something called the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific hurricanes. Note that the data begins in 1970 and ends in 2009. The text explains the beginning date by saying “there is considerable uncertainty in the record prior to the satellite era (early 1970s).”

This is true, but phenomenally disingenuous. Another hurricane scientist, conspicuously absent from the author list, is Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center, who developed the Center’s historical hurricane archive, known as HURDAT2. According to Landsea, the problem in the early record (which should be obvious) is that some storms will be missed, not the other way around! In his words, in a 2013 article in Monthly Weather Review, “Some storms were missed, and many intensities are too low in the pre-aircraft reconnaissance era (before 1944 in the western half of the basin) and in the pre-satellite era (before 1972 for the entire basin).

Therefore, prior to 1972, any history is likely to underestimate the PDI rather than overestimate it.

One of us (Maue) calculated the PDI using the HURDAT2 data back to 1920, shown below:

We have included the trend line from the National Assessment. It’s also noteworthy to see what happened after 2009. The accompanying text says “Adapted from Kossin et al. 2007,” meaning they added two more years. Why didn’t they add through 2013, the year before publication of the Assessment? One potential reason is a close look at the chart (which goes through 2016) would have destroyed the narrative.

When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the Assessment on May 6, 2014, it said, “The report, a key deliverable of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan, is the most comprehensive and authoritative report ever generated about climate changes that are happening now in the United States…[emphasis added].”

The President’s Action Plan eventually resulted in the Clean Power Plan, arguably the most expensive environmental regulation ever promulgated. The flamboyant, cherry-picked misrepresentation of the hurricane data record was indeed a “deliverable.”

A more “comprehensive” and “authoritative” report would have noted that periodic changes in the north-south gradient of temperature in the Atlantic Ocean (known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO) are related to hurricane activity. The trendline in the Assessment begins in a “negative” AMO period, which is associated with suppressed hurricane activity, and ends during a very positive phase which is associated with enhanced hurricanes. A more accurate representation should have begun in 1950, which would have represented a complete AMO cycle. Of course, there wouldn’t be any trend, as expected. Instead, the Assessment cherry picked data to tell a story, and the concocted cheap excuse as to why it did it is risible.

Let’s just quote NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory updated overview of current research as of April 13, 2017: “It is premature to conclude that human activities – and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming – have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.” Now, that is an entirely different story than we have been told.


Energy and Environment


climate change, climate, hurricanes, hurricane, natural disaster, disasters