Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2014 22:04 -0500
- Submitted by Michael Snyder of The End of The American Dream blog,
If you could stay home and watch television, play video games and hang out with your friends all day at government expense, would you do it? Of course most Americans that collect money from the government each month are not abusing the system. Many truly are incapable of taking care of themselves, and others are just receiving government benefits (such as Social Security) that they feel that they have earned by a lifetime of hard work. But with each passing year the number of Americans jumping on board “the safety net” continues to grow rapidly, and a lot of these people should be able to take care of themselves. Today, the American people collectively receive more money from the government than they pay in taxes. And remember, the federal government uses our money to build roads, inspect our food and fund the military as well. So what does this say about our economy? Could it survive without all of these debt-fueled transfer payments? And what does this say about our society? At one time, our nation was known for our work ethic. What would our forefathers say about us today? The following are 21 facts that prove that dependence on the government is out of control in America…
1. According to a Congressional Budget Office study that was just released, approximately 60 percent of all U.S. households get more in transfer payments from the government than they pay in taxes. Here is more about this stunning report from Mark J. Perry’s Carpe Diem blog…
Some additional analysis and commentary will be provided here that reveal a yet-to-be discussed major implication of the CBO report – almost the entire burden: a) of all transfer payments made to American households and b) of all non-financed government spending, falls on just one group of Americans – the top one-fifth of US households by income. That’s correct, the CBO study shows that the bottom three income quintiles representing 60% of US households are “net recipients” (they receive more in transfer payments than they pay in federal taxes), the second-highest income quintile pays just slightly more in federal taxes ($14,800) than it receives in government transfer payments ($14,100), while the top 20% of American “net payer” households finance 100% of the transfer payments to the bottom 60%, as well as almost 100% of the tax revenue collected to run the federal government. Here are the details of that analysis.
The figures in Row 6 in the table above (and displayed in the graph above) show the amount of federal taxes paid by the average household in each income quintile minus the average amount of government transfers received by those households in 2011. For each of the three lower income quintiles, their average government transfer payments exceeded their federal taxes paid by $8,600, $12,500, and $9,100 respectively, and therefore the entire bottom 60% of US households are “net recipients” of government transfer payments.
2. About 70 percent of all government spending now goes toward dependence-creating programs.
3. From 2009 through 2013, the U.S. government spent a whopping 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs.
4. The percentage of the U.S. population that gets money from the federal government grew by an astounding 62 percent between 1988 and 2011.
5. According to an analysis of U.S. government numbers conducted by Terrence P. Jeffrey, there are 86 million full-time private sector workers in the United States paying taxes to support the government, and nearly 148 million Americans that are receiving benefits from the government each month.
6. According to the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Census, well over 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government. Sadly, that figure does not even include Social Security or Medicare.
7. Currently, there are somewhere around 40 million senior citizens in the United States. By 2050, that number is projected to skyrocket to 89 million. Supporting all of those senior citizens is going to be extraordinarily expensive.
8. Right now, more than 64 million Americans are receiving Social Security benefits.
9. Right now, more than 54 million Americans are enrolled in Medicare.
10. Right now, more than 70 million Americans are enrolled in Medicaid.
11. The number of Americans enrolled in the Social Security disability program now exceeds the entire population of the state of Virginia.
12. If the number of Americans on Social Security disability were gathered into a separate state, it would be the 8th largest state in the entire country.
13. In 1968, there were 51 full-time workers for every American on disability. Today, there are just 13 full-time workers for every American on disability.
14. At this point, the federal government runs about 80 different “means-tested welfare programs”, and almost all of those programs have experienced substantial growth in recent years.
16. Ten years ago, the number of women in the U.S. that had jobs outnumbered the number of women in the U.S. on food stamps by more than a 2 to 1 margin. But now the number of women in the U.S. on food stamps actually exceeds the number of women that have jobs.
17. Back in the 1970s, about one out of every 50 Americans was on food stamps. Today, about one out of every 6.5 Americans is on food stamps.
18. Today, the number of Americans on food stamps exceeds the entire population of the nation of Spain.
19. According to one calculation, the number of Americans on food stamps now exceeds the combined populations of “Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming.”
20. According to a report from the Center for Immigration Studies, 43 percent of all immigrants that have been in the United States for at least 20 years are still on welfare.
21. Most Americans are not earning enough to support themselves and their families without government help anymore. The following are some statistics about wages in the U.S. from a Social Security Administration report that was recently released…
-39 percent of American workers made less than $20,000 last year.
-52 percent of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.
-63 percent of American workers made less than $40,000 last year.
-72 percent of American workers made less than $50,000 last year.
In order to have a middle class, you have got to have middle class jobs, and those are disappearing from our system very rapidly.
As a result, the number of people that are financially independent continues to drop.
So what will the future look like?
Will the government eventually have to take care of almost all of us?
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Monday, November 17, 2014
If anyone still has any doubt about the utter cynicism of the Obama administration, a recent agreement between the federal government and the Minneapolis Public Schools should open their eyes.
Under the Obama administration, both the Department of Education and the Department of Justice have been leaning on public schools around the country to reduce what they call the "disproportionate" numbers of black male students who are punished for various offenses in schools.
Under an implicit threat of losing their federal subsidies, the Minneapolis Public Schools have agreed to reduce the disparity in punishment of black students by 25 percent by the end of this school year, and then by 50 percent, 75 percent and finally 100 percent in each of the following years. In other words, there are now racial quota limits for punishment in the Minneapolis schools.
If we stop and think — as old-fashioned as that may seem — there is not the slightest reason to expect black males to commit the same number of offenses as Asian females or any other set of students.
When different groups of human beings have behaved differently in all sorts of ways, in countries around the world, for thousands of years of recorded history, why would we accept as dogma that the only reason one set of students gets punished more than others is because the people who are doing the punishing are picking on them?
Politically — which is the way the Obama administration looks at everything — any time they can depict blacks as victims, and depict themselves as their rescuers, that means an opportunity to get out the black vote for Democrats.
On the surface, this may look like a favor to blacks. But only on the surface.
Anyone with common sense knows that letting a kid get away with bad behavior is an open invitation to worse behavior in the future. Punishing a kid for misbehavior in school when he is 10 years old may reduce the chances that he will have to be sent to prison when he is 20 years old.
Other schools in other cities, which have also caved under pressure from the federal government, and agreed to lighten up on black kids who misbehave, have reported an increase in misbehavior, including violence. Who would have thought otherwise?
Letting kids who are behavior problems in schools grow up to become hoodlums and then criminals is no favor to them or to the black community. Moreover, it takes no more than a small fraction of troublemakers in a class to make it impossible to give that class a decent education. And for many poor people, whether black or white, education is their one big chance to escape poverty.
The people in the Obama administration who are pushing this counterproductive policy are not stupid. They are political, which is worse. They know what they are doing and they are willing to sacrifice young blacks to do it.
This punishment issue made me think back to the 8th grade, when I was punished by being kept after school, more often than any other kid in the class — black, white, Hispanic or whatever. I was bored in school and did various pranks to liven things up.
One day, after school, as I sat alone among the empty chairs in the classroom, the teacher said, sarcastically: "Well, here we are again, Sowell, just the two of us!"
"Good grief, Miss Sharoff," I said. "If we keep staying in after school together all the time, people will begin to talk."
"We will just have to live with the scandal," she said, without even looking up from the papers she was correcting.
Thank heaven there was no Obama administration to exempt me from punishment. Who knows how I might have ended up?
Years ago, there was a study of a working class community where there were black, Hispanic and Italian kids, and where many of the cops were Italian. When a black or Hispanic kid broke the law, the police took him down to the station and booked him. But, if an Italian kid did the same thing, they reacted differently.
The Italian cop would take the Italian kid out into an alley and rough him up. Then he would take him home to his family, tell them what had happened and leave him there — where the kid could expect another beating, instead of the wrist-slap punishment of the law. Those cops understood the realities of life that politicians ignore. And they were doing a favor to their own.
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. His website is www.tsowell.com. To find out more about Thomas Sowell and read features by other Creators Syndicate columnists and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2014 CREATORS.COM
Sunday, November 16, 2014
The experts at the National Climatic Data Center report that October was 4th warmest on record in the US, despite the fact that their own thermometers show it was 24th warmest – after 1947, 1963, 1884, 1900, 1882, 1950, 1881, 1931, 1938, 2007, 1953, 1918, 1956, 1897, 1910, 1927, 1971, 1934, 1973, 1941, 1940, 1962 and 1914
1947 and 1963 were nearly four degrees warmer.
They accomplished this by massively cooling the past, and warming the present. A full two degrees of data tampering!
The animation below shows how they completely corrupt the US temperature record, turning a century long cooling trend into a warming trend.
North America had the eighth highest October snow extent on record, yet NCDC claims it was fourth warmest here.
In summary, NCDC is faking numbers and lying through their teeth.
Friday, November 14, 2014
Sultan Knish blog ^ | Thursday, November 13, 2014 | Daniel Greenfield
Posted on 11/14/2014 12:25:39 AM by Louis Foxwell
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Posted by Daniel Greenfield @ the Sultan Knish blog
After another bloody weekend in Chicago, Mayor Rahm Emanuel branded the shootings unacceptable and the city’s top cop demanded more gun control laws. Chicago’s murder rate has actually dropped since concealed carry became legal. Emanuel’s lawsuits over his illegal gun control laws have left the already struggling city deep in the hole and forced to cover the NRA’s million dollars in legal bills.
Concealed carry paid off over that bloody weekend when a vet carrying a gun returned fire stopping a massacre before it happened. The original shooter ended up in the hospital, but nobody ended up in the morgue, which kept the death toll for the weekend down to fourteen.
Fourteen isn’t pretty, but it’s better than twenty or thirty.
Chicago’s murder rate in 1992 was double what it is today. The death rate was at 33.7 out of 100,000 which meant that you had a pretty good chance of being shot in Chicago. Today it’s down to 15 out of 100,000, which is small comfort to those ending up in the morgue, but it gives everyone else much better odds of surviving to see what ingenious ways the next corrupt mayoral administration will use to rip off the city.
Back in 1992, the cops also blamed guns for the murder rate. But it wasn’t the guns that were killing people. It was the gangs. Now the murder rate is down, but the number of shootings is up. To Chicago’s police boss, that’s a problem, as if it makes a difference to the deceased whether he’s shot, stabbed or dropped in the water wearing cement overshoes. But fighting guns is easier than fighting crime.
The gun obsession is one of the few things that cops and leftists have in common. It’s the last politically acceptable form of prohibitionism in a society that enthusiastically legalizes drugs, even if possessing crack cocaine is statistically much more likely to lead you to kill a man, than possessing a gun will.
Every shooting spree bypasses the obvious problem with calls for more gun laws and something for the youth to do over the weekend that doesn’t involve shooting up the local housing project. This weekend, Rahm Emanuel took on the problem of funding more teen centers while Chicago’s top cop blustered about more gun laws. And then having successfully talked around the issue, they all went home.
The left loves root causes more than it loves red shirts and black bandanas, a fashion choice that it shares with some of the gangs responsible for most of the shootings.
America’s gun violence problem is urban. It’s localized in Democratic enclaves. And it overlaps neatly with its corrupt political machines. It has nothing to do with the NRA and a great deal to do with the party of social engineering, the welfare state and gun bans.
And illegal immigration.
Homicide rates overlap with unemployment rates, especially when accounting for the demographic populations of young minority men who are statistically more likely to kill or be killed.
92% of black male teens in Chicago don’t have a job. In Detroit, 50% of black men are unemployed. It’s not that there aren’t any jobs, but the entry level jobs have been mostly going to immigrants.
The Center for Immigration Studies found that under Obama two-thirds of jobs went to immigrants, both legal and illegal. Throw in a massive illegal alien amnesty and the rush of illegal aliens into the country will turn the employment figures of every city into Detroit and Chicago.
The black male unemployment rate in New York was at 33%. And the murder rate in New York is significantly lower than in Detroit or Chicago. But how long will that last if the unemployment rate in New York rises above 50%? Before long the marginal gangs will swell to monstrous sizes controlling entire neighborhoods. Anyone who can will flee and the city will once again become what it was.
The same process will take place in most major American cities.
The United States of America does not have a shortage of workers. It has a shortage of jobs. The irresponsible immigration policy has created a surplus of workers. Illegal alien amnesty will make that surplus much worse. Legalize twelve million illegal aliens and another twelve million will come. Those who can’t find jobs, will find gangs. Those who lose jobs to them will also find gangs.
The gangs will fight each other for control of entire neighborhoods and the crime wave will set America back decades.
After the 1986 amnesty, the number of murders, which had begun to fall in the early eighties, rose again. They did not return to a pre-amnesty level until 1997. Rapes have only recently returned to a pre-amnesty level. Now the progress we’ve made is about to be undone all over again.
In 1986, murder rates suddenly rose mysteriously in major cities. The New York Times described the crime rates as being the highest since the 1970s.
In Chicago, murders increased by 20%. In New York they increased by 20%. The cities rushed to crack down on guns while insisting that they were mystified by the drastic increase.
The guns weren’t the problem. The illegal alien amnesty which had created a magnet was. Illegal aliens with fake documents headed in hoping to take advantage of amnesty. Later newly legalized immigrants invited their family members to join them. Even before the amnesty took effect, crime rates spiked.
Amnesty advocates claim that immigrants aren’t taking jobs from Americans because they are more likely to be employed at the lower and higher ends of the marketplace. And that’s half true. What it really means is that they displace trained technical workers at the high end of the marketplace. That leads to a further erosion of the native middle class, but it doesn’t directly lead to gang violence.
At the lower end of the marketplace, they not only displace workers, but they displace the workers that might have been. Teenagers who would have started working regular jobs instead roam around aimlessly. The lost entry level jobs are substituted with crime. Neighborhoods fall apart and gang violence increases as gang members compete for turf in the new drug marketplace. And the rest is crime statistics and children taken to morgues in cities that can barely keep the lights on.
If we want to repeat the same cycle again, Super-Amnesty, an amnesty several times bigger than the one in 1986, will make it happen. Entire cities will fall into gang violence. Their economies will collapse and that will have a ripple effect on their suburbs and on entire states.
America will be a more dangerous and poorer place. And the politicians will talk some more about banning guns and about building more teen centers for the youth to hang out in between shootings.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Written by Audrey Russo on November 9, 2014
Most of us infidels in the West have been lied to. Trusting the education system, foolishly, we believed all the bunk bundled into our textbooks concerning the period in history (1096 AD -1272 AD) when the Crusades took place…they left out an itty bitty piece of info…This will be great for all your “enlightened” friends…
The real reason WHY the Crusades took place…and here’s the shocker: It was a response to Islam’s aggression!
That’s right…it all began with Muhammed’s implicit threat more than 450 years before the Crusaders entered Jerusalem. He said: “embrace Islam and you will be safe.” (Muhammed’s extortion letter to the Khaibar Jews)
Some facts for your ill-informed friends/family/colleagues:
— The Crusades were a delayed response for CENTURIES of Muslim aggression, that grew ever fiercer in the 11th Century. The Muslims focused on Christians and Jews…forcing conversions, plundering and mortally wounding apostates.
— The Crusades were a DEFENSIVE action, first called for by Pope Urban II in 1095 at the Council of Clermont.
— The Crusades were a response against Jihad, which is obligatory against non-Muslims entering “Muslim lands’”. (Muslim lands are any lands invaded and conquered by Islam.)
— The motives of the Crusaders were pure. They were jihad-provoked and not imperialistic actions against a “peaceful”, native Muslim population. The Crusades were NOT for profit, but rather to recover the Holy Land brutally invaded and conquered by Muslims…who conquered for profit and as a notch on their superiority belt.
— The lands conquered by the Crusaders were NOT colonized under the Byzantine Empire. The Empire withdrew its support so the Crusaders renounced their agreement.
The Islamic world ripped through the Christian world on a bloody Jihad crusade to propagate Islam. Muslim imperialistic conquest wars were launched for more than 1,500 years against hundreds of nations and over millions of square miles (larger than the British Empire at its peak). The Jihad crusade went from southern France to the Philippines, from Austria to Nigeria, and from central Asia to New Guinea.
The dictionary defines imperialism as “the policy and practice of seeking to dominate the economic and political affairs of weaker countries.” This historical Islamic Jihad WAS imperialistic…and its goals remain the same.
Islam’s greed and lust for bloody domination of non-Muslims and their property CAUSED the Crusades…it doesn’t get simpler than that!
Shalom through strength…
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/07/2014 21:00 -0500
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via First Rebuttal blog,
They say a picture is worth one thousand words. And so here’s a twelve thousand word equivalent essay that quite clearly depicts how the policies of the new millennium are shaping the new world order. The powers that be have looked at these same charts, understand their implications and yet continue on the current path. The objective then is clear. The death of the working class.
With almost 100% of ‘savings’ having been forced into the stock market we are getting ever closer to what will be described as an epic collapse of wealth. However, the more fitting description will be an epic and final transfer of wealth from the working class to the burgeoning aristocracy as assets are picked up for pennies on the dollar. Pay particular attention to data from the end of the 1990′s through the new millennium.
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The big question now confronts a newly-emergent Republican majority in the Senate and an overwhelming Republican majority in the House: what next? Some party leaders have called for working with the opposition; some have proposed comprehensive legislation. Others say it’s time to push forward with a hard-core conservative agenda, full speed ahead.
The answer truly lies in combatting the narrative that the media will no doubt embrace: Republicans as the Party of No. We saw this narrative emerge in the aftermath of the Republican victories of 2010; Obama then ran against the supposedly obstructionist Congress. The media, seeking to prop up a Hillary Clinton run, will now demonize the Republican Party as a roadblock to progress.
Which is why the GOP must reverse the narrative. It is President Obama who is the roadblock. He is, in fact, the President of No.
How can the GOP achieve this reversal? By moving beyond omnibus packages, pork-laden monstrosities cobbled together via a consensus-building process. Instead, Republicans should pursue short, single-issue bills, no more than 10 pages in length, with clear and concise language. The bills should all be simple, comprehensible, and inescapable in the conclusions constituents should draw from a Congressional vote on them.
Here are the top options for Republicans:
Stop Amnesty Now. President Obama wants to pursue executive amnesty. We all know it. He knows it; his cabinet knows it; the media know it. The Republicans should pass a one-page bill defunding any agency of government that refuses to implement federal immigration law or that facilitates such refusal. The executive branch does not have the cash to implement amnesty – unless Congress gives it to President Obama.
Border Security. Republicans should immediately pass a bill securing the southern border, with funds available to complete the fence. Those funds should, if possible, be given to border state governors for implementation should those governors apply for grants. Furthermore, Republicans should fully fund all immigration agents so that the great lie that government cannot keep track of those illegally in the country can be put to bed once and for all: if the IRS can keep track of hundreds of millions of Americans, surely the feds can keep track of 10 million illegal immigrants.
Piecemeal Funding Of The Government. Republicans are already talking about passing a full budget. They shouldn’t. The budget process is a joke, created purely for the purpose of lard-slathered legislation. Instead, Republicans should individually fund each portion of the government, and force Obama to veto every one of those bills. Let him go on record as opposing funding for the Defense Department, the Centers for Disease Control, and the like, all in order to preserve his precious Obamacare. It will be difficult for him to argue that a government shutdown is the Republicans’ fault when he has hundreds of individual bills funding everything Americans want on his desk awaiting signature.
Repeal Obamacare. Yes, full repeal. Obama will reject it. That does not matter. The point is that the American people do not like Obamacare, and are not interested in preserving it. A full quarter of Americans said in exit polls yesterday that health care was their top voting priority. That number is likely to rise as Obamacare is implemented. Republicans pledged repeal. Now is the time for them to fulfill that pledge.
Restore Defense Department Cuts. The cuts to Defense funding under President Obama’s sequestration have been disastrous for Americans’ security. We no longer have the capacity to fight two wars simultaneously – a basic requirement of national security – and we are looking at the greatest cuts to military readiness in almost a century. Republicans should move quickly to replace Defense spending in the face of a growing threat from Islamic terrorism, Russian imperialism, and Chinese militarism.
Withdraw Funding From Certain Parts of The United Nations. The United Nations is an amoral joke, and councils like the Human Rights Council are far worse than that. Spending millions of taxpayer dollars to prop up failing dictatorships and thugocracies isn’t just wrong, it’s an insult to the men and women who work every day to stop such dictatorships – and those who die trying to fight them.
Pass Strong Sanctions on Iran, Withdraw Funding for the Palestinian Authority, Move the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. President Obama’s outreach to Iran has been one of the greatest catastrophes for American foreign policy in decades. Iran will go nuclear, unless the United States takes severe action against Iran. That means harsh sanctions, beginning now. That would also send Iran the signal that no matter how much President Obama hates “chickens***” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the people of the United States stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel. The same message would be sent by moving the embassy to Jerusalem – right now, the Obama administration refuses to even state that Jerusalem is a part of Israel – or with a move by the Congress to cut off foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority, which is working with Hamas in a genocidally anti-Jewish campaign of terror against the Jewish state.
Dismantle Common Core. Common Core is set to plague states across the country with its mishmash of standards and requirements. Federal power over education should be delegated back to the states, where it belongs. Republicans on the state level should then vote to set up grant programs that create actual teacher training standards, as in countries like Finland.
Greenlight Keystone XL. New Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has already said that this remains a top priority. President Obama should be forced to give Keystone XL an up-or-down decision as soon as possible. As Alison Lundergan Grimes found out, Americans like access to energy.
There are plenty more such legislative proposals worthy of consideration. The bottom line: if Republicans blow this opportunity to draw a contrast with the Democratic Party, they will have failed dramatically. President Obama must become the President of No in order for Americans to see Republicans as a party worth saying yes to in 2016.
Ben Shapiro is Senior Editor-At-Large of Breitbart News and author of the new book, The People vs. Barack Obama: The Criminal Case Against The Obama Administration (Threshold Editions, June 10, 2014). He is also Editor-in-Chief of TruthRevolt.org. Follow Ben Shapiro on Twitter @benshapiro.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Select the Youtube link below.
Monday, November 3, 2014
And this fraud is killing you. Literally.
The top scientist guiding the U.S. government’s nutrition recommendations made an admission last month that would surprise most Americans. Low-fat diets, Alice Lichtenstein said, are “probably not a good idea.” It was a rare public acknowledgment conceding the failure of the basic principle behind 35 years of official American nutrition advice.
The problem is that there was never science behind any of it. The so-called "science" was cooked, manipulated and the data selected to show a desired outcome.
But this scam didn't just cost you money, although it sure as hell made a lot of medical providers very rich (at your expense.) It also made you sick and killed many of you through heart disease, diabetes, obesity and more.
Yet most Americans are still actively trying to avoid fat, according to a recent Gallup poll. They are not aware of the USDA’s crucial about-face because the agency hasn’t publicized the changes. Perhaps it did not want to be held responsible for the consequences of a quarter-century of misguided advice, especially since many experts now believe the increase in carbohydrates that authorities recommended has contributed to our obesity and diabetes epidemics.
These people, and the doctors who lapped this crap up without question and dispensed advice that factually killed millions of Americans, should be prosecuted for their intentional falsehoods.
They won't be -- but they should be.
However, this points out something you ought to pay attention to -- other than patching holes and cutting things off, which medical science is very good at (it's damn hard to not understand what's going on when you broke your leg!) most of what is called "science" in the medical field and the recommendations that flow from it should be taken with an entire shaker full of salt -- on your food.
These are compelling reasons for Congress to ask the USDA and HHS to reconstitute the Dietary Guidelines committee so that its members represent the full range of expert opinion. The committee should then be mandated to fundamentally reassess the Guidelines’ basic assumptions, based on the best and most current science.
What we need to see is incarceration, and lots of it.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
The Winter of 2013-14 was wild over North America.
Most forecasters including NOAA, the media and public, were caught by surprise. The arctic air pushed the grid to the brink of failure and led to supply issues and resulting price spikes for other sources of energy stressing homeowners and businesses. Look for a repeat this winter despite NOAA and Department of Energy forecasts of a warmer winter and no repeat of the polar vortex.
I, and most all meteorologists, have a high regard for the work of our forecaster brethren at the National Weather Service. NOAA has done some great research on factors affecting longer term weather and they do a commendable job with medium range forecasts.
The government forecasters do a have a blind spot, however, with seasonal forecasts. Part of the reason, a former NOAA Climate Prediction Center Director once told me in 2003, was due to pressure from academia only to use El Ninos and La Ninas with an politically driven adjustment for long term warming trends (ignoring the fact they have been non-existent for almost two decades).
In September I was invited to a meeting at a large company in Toronto that advises many organizations on how to manage their way through energy market fluctuations and supply disruptions. They had heard that we at Weatherbell (in July of 2013) had projected a historically cold winter for 2013/14. That is in comparison to Environment Canada (Canadian Government weather service) prediction in late November 2013 that last winter would be warm in Toronto and the Great Lakes.
Remember how cold last winter was for us here in New Hampshire??? It was even worst in Toronto and most large US cities around the Great Lakes. They wanted to know how Weatherbell got it right when both the Canadian & US Government forecasts were so wrong.
Our research at Weatherbell had identified a pool of warm water that had developed in the central Pacific during the super La Nina of 2010/11 and slowly drifted with the wind driven currents into the Gulf of Alaska. A similar warm pool formation and movement occurred, during the brutal winters of the 1916-1918 period, 1976-1978 and again in 2002-2004. Indeed it was the coldest December to March in Chicago in the entire record from 1872 beating out the previous record cold. Vermont in the deep snow, had its coldest March ever, beating out 1916.
Unlike government forecasters that have to contend with toting the party line on Global Warming by academia and politicians, private sector forecasters investigate the relationship of many factors, major multidecadal cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic, variances on the sun, the winds in the high atmosphere that flip back and forth, soil moisture, snow cover in winter, volcanic eruptions, and unusual features like that warm pool. We study the past intensively to forecast the future. At Weatherbell we have 3400 clients that depend on us and they will tell you we usually get it right.
We had promised a cool, spring and summer, an erratic fall this year and have advised our clients since early this year this upcoming winter will be another hard winter characterized by lots of snow. It should be cold over much of the country but focused in the east
NOAA meanwhile has again forecast a warm winter especially west and northeast. They have it cooler in the south, mainly because they see clouds and a southern storm track with the average of all El Ninos. They have expanded the cold to the southeast and will likely expand it to the north but not enough. They have had a clear warm bias in the past dozen years. A public information officer from NOAA in the DC area has heard many complaints from local and regional offices about that warm bias.
El Ninos come in more than one flavor. El Ninos displaced towards the central tropical Pacific. Are cold to very cold here in the east. We told our clients this will be one of the cold ones like the ones in 1968/69, 1976/77, 1977/78, 1993/94, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2009/10. Because of some of the other factors, there will be a period of four to six weeks of intense cold midwinter.
Snow will fall in the east this weekend! Snow will be heavy into February in much of the country. But fortunately, most of the similar years had winter end early. When the snow melts in March, milder weather follows in March and April. We all will be ready for it. Meanwhile prepare for the worst.