Thursday, April 8, 2010

Canadian Housing Boom-Boom Around The Corner (Karl Denninger)


The Canucks are nuts:

Are you're going to tell me that:

  • The average Canadian household income is $121,000?
  • The average income in Vancouver is $329,000?
  • The average income in Toronto is $187,000?
  • The average income in Montreal is $118,000?

In a word, bullshit.

The latest median household income I can find for Canada is closer to $53,000 - or about half of what it should be.  That is, homes in Canada - on the whole - are selling for double reasonable "fair values."

I'm willing to bet that in Vancouver they're overvalued by a factor of five - or more.

I can't tell you when it will blow up, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that it will.

If you have a nice big fat profit in your house up there in Canuckistan, you better sell now while you still have it.

Ignore this warning at your own peril.


Kevin said...

Karl is a deflationist in the great inflation/deflation debate. He is currently right about houses being overvalued but he has no faith in Governments being able to inflate their way out of their current debt problems. I on the other hand think they will be successful beyond their wildest dreams in which case it may be money that is overvalued not commodities and real estate.

What to do? what to do?

Anonymous said...

I live in Van and people want to live here and are spending ridiculous $ to do so. We have no more land here, so the price is not going to bust all that much. A lot of us do not have mortgages, and there are empty condos owned by off-shore buyers, so your analysis on income levels falls short.

A bit of bubble is coming from the coming HST, as people are trying to save 6%. Prices will drop in July. Selling now would be good, as long as one does not want another Van home. Otherwise, it makes no difference.

Anonymous said...

You forgot two income families employed in the government. (real conservative)